The "Made in China 2025" initiative has accelerated the development of smart manufacturing equipment and products, while the "13th Five-Year Plan" emphasized the growth of intelligent connected vehicles. As a result, driverless cars are no longer just a distant dream but an emerging reality. According to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap," by 2030, fully autonomous vehicles could account for nearly 10% of the market. To meet these ambitious targets, traditional automakers and technology solution providers are collaborating on unmanned vehicle projects, while internet companies and startups are actively developing sensor technologies, mapping systems, and testing solutions.
In this rapidly evolving landscape, technology firms and traditional car manufacturers are both vying for leadership in the commercialization of autonomous driving. One question that often arises is: Will the first wave of commercialization begin with taxis? Wang Xiaoqiu, vice president of SAIC Motor Corporation, once remarked that "smart cars represent a revolution compared to traditional vehicles." SAIC plans to achieve automated driving on structured and partially unstructured roads within five years and fully autonomous driving within ten years. Similarly, Changan Automobile has outlined a "654" strategy for smart driving, aiming for true autopilot by 2025.
However, industry experts caution that high costs, complex supply chains, and immature technology remain major hurdles at this early stage. Kaifu Li, founder of Innovation Workshop, noted that companies like Tesla, Uber, and Didi have an advantage due to their agility and ability to collect data quickly. Meanwhile, Euler Kellerius of Daimler suggested that individual ownership of self-driving cars may be too expensive, making taxis a more feasible initial target.
Intel’s market research highlights the potential of autonomous vehicles to create a new passenger economy, projecting that the market for ride-sharing, logistics, and in-vehicle services will grow from $800 billion in 2035 to $7 trillion by 2050. Strategy Analytics also predicts that driverless car commercialization will accelerate before 2040, leading to more personalized and real-time services.
Given the complexity of developing autonomous driving technology, many believe that collaboration is key. Wu Gansha of Zushi Technology stated that combining the strengths of traditional automakers and tech companies can lead to better outcomes. Indeed, several alliances have already formed. BMW, Intel, and Mobileye (before its acquisition) are working together on autonomous driving, while Delphi and Fiat Chrysler have joined forces. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi are leveraging HERE maps to establish a shared alliance, and Ericsson, Intel, Toyota, and Japanese telecom providers have created the Automotive Edge Computing Alliance.
Experts emphasize that turning AI into actual autonomous driving products requires integrating R&D platforms and ensuring that technology becomes a functional product, creating a complete loop. Bai Xuejun, vice president of Baidu, explained that driverless technology is rooted in AI and needs time to evolve before it can be commercialized. Yan Xuebin added that Baidu focuses on software, not hardware, aiming to provide the "brain" for vehicles through modules like maps, perception, planning, and decision-making. The company expects the domestic market for such technology to reach $75 billion by 2030.
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