In recent years, China has taken significant steps toward advancing intelligent manufacturing and autonomous vehicles. From the "Made in China 2025" initiative, which aims to accelerate the development of smart manufacturing equipment and products, to the "13th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes the growth of intelligent connected vehicles, driverless cars are no longer just a distant dream. With the release of the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap," it is projected that by 2030, fully autonomous vehicles could capture nearly 10% of the market. To meet these ambitious targets, traditional car manufacturers and technology solution providers are collaborating on unmanned vehicle development, while internet companies and startups are actively testing various technologies such as sensor systems, mapping solutions, and data collection tools.
This growing interest has sparked intense competition between tech firms and traditional automakers, with both sides vying for leadership in the commercialization of autonomous driving. A key question remains: will the initial adoption of self-driving cars begin with ride-hailing services? Wang Xiaoqiu, vice president of SAIC Motor Corporation, once remarked that "smart cars represent a revolution compared to traditional vehicles." SAIC plans to achieve automated driving on structured and partially unstructured roads within five years and full autonomy across all environments in the next decade. Similarly, Changan Automobile has outlined a "654" strategy for smart driving, aiming for true autopilot by 2025. However, industry experts note that high costs, complex supply chains, and immature technology remain major barriers at this early stage.
According to Kaifu Li, founder of Innovation Workshop, companies like Tesla, Uber, and Didi currently have an edge due to their agility and ability to collect vast amounts of data quickly. Meanwhile, traditional automakers and tech firms are forming strategic alliances to pool resources and accelerate progress. For example, BMW, Intel, and Mobileye previously collaborated on autonomous driving research, while Delphi and Fiat Chrysler have also joined forces. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi have partnered to share map data through the HERE alliance, and companies like Ericsson, Intel, and Toyota have formed the Automotive Edge Computing Alliance.
Experts agree that the path to commercialization requires collaboration. Wu Gansha, CEO of Zushi Technology, stated that combining the strengths of traditional automakers and tech companies can lead to better outcomes. As Euler Kellerius of Daimler noted, "Since individual purchases of self-driving cars are too expensive, taxis will be the ideal starting point." This aligns with Intel’s market research, which predicts that the shift from "driving" to "car" will create a new passenger economy, expanding the market for ride-sharing, logistics, and in-vehicle services from $800 billion in 2035 to $7 trillion by 2050.
Strategy Analytics also highlights that the commercialization of driverless cars will gain momentum before 2040, leading to more personalized and real-time services. Meanwhile, Baidu's Bai Xuejun emphasized that driverless technology is built on AI, requiring continuous evolution before reaching full commercialization. Yan Xuebin added that Baidu focuses on software development, including mapping, perception, planning, and decision-making, aiming to create a "brain" for autonomous vehicles. The company expects the domestic market to reach $75 billion by 2030. As the race for autonomous driving intensifies, collaboration, innovation, and strategic partnerships will be essential in shaping the future of mobility.
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