The second half of the mobile Internet and 4G market from the perspective of operators

Operators provide "pipes," while Internet startups provide "water." The contribution of 4G network development to mobile internet can not be ignored, and now 4G development has entered the second half, so what about the second half of mobile Internet entrepreneurs?

At the end of the year, I went to the time to write my work ideas for next year. Most entrepreneurs predict that the Internet will not work well next year. why? The mobile Internet is going to enter the second half. So what exactly is the second half of the mobile Internet? Why is the mobile Internet going to the second half?

Today I will talk about this issue from the perspective of the operator.

Although everyone thinks that operators are always lagging behind in the transformation of mobile Internet, no one can ignore the operator's underlying contribution to the mobile Internet startup - 4G network.

This year's mobile revenue growth is very beautiful, and the stock price soared at the beginning of the year. why? The large traffic revenue generated by the development of 4G users increased. But by the end of the year, mobile began to worry again.

Because new users are particularly difficult to find. The dividend of 4G development lies in the replacement of 2G and 3G users, that is, before 4G is used, people who use it now will naturally have a large amount of traffic growth, corresponding to the traffic revenue.

Because new users are more difficult to obtain. After 4 years of 4G development, the 4G conversion bonus of 2G and 3G users has been exhausted this year. The proportion of 4G users in many places has exceeded 50%, and the development of 4G users has gradually become weak. User DOUs (users use traffic per person) are also gradually slowing down. This makes the operator "break the heart."

The operator provides “pipeline”, while the startup provides “water”. If the pipe does not become large, the water flow growth will be limited.

Looking back at the Internet entrepreneurial market, everyone's judgment on the second half of the mobile Internet is that the user dividend disappears. Now that the number of Internet users has reached 700 million, it is impossible to double. Online traffic is getting harder and harder and the cost is getting higher and higher.

From the operator's point of view, this is indeed the case. Users who want to change 4G mobile phones have already changed, and this time they have not changed. After all, they are the kind of "low-end and senior" users. They don't have 4G demand at all. Even if they change their mobile phones, there is no special traffic demand. The cost of excavation and cultivation of such users is particularly high.

From the bottom-level data of the operators, it is not only difficult for new users to find, but also existing users have less time online. From the gateway data, a user's longest online time can reach 22 hours, which is almost always online. The user's various fragmentation time and various scenes are filled with various contents.

In the past, after users switched to 4G mobile phones, they naturally had video needs, which was new to video sites. Now, if a user watches an hour of live broadcast on Momo, then the time to watch the video at iQiyi is gone. For iQiyi, it lost a user in disguise.

Various "kill time" applications, live broadcasts, videos, and games are all desperately competing for limited entertainment time for users. Content entrepreneurship has changed from a dividend period to a red sea period. Now it's not too little content, but the user time is too small, there is no way to consume so much content.

Take Luo Zhi’s “Get” APP as an example. They launched a paid column this year, and the content is really great. However, after serially subscribing to nine columns, I found that I didn't have much time to digest the content. If they launch content again next year, I can't afford it, but I can't buy it.

This situation forces companies to desperately grab the location of each traffic portal, because once they are not snatched by competitors, users will no longer have time to consume your content. The high traffic costs have made the Internet companies entering the second half "worried."

This is why the “operation” has become so important now. We used to say that the product is very important every day, because the products are doing well, and the users are coming. Now that product forms are becoming more and more similar, operations are the key. The same content, in what channels are distributed, in what form, in what form, "stabilizing" users has become the biggest issue for operating small partners.

The e-commerce students know that e-commerce is now omni-channel, that is, Tmall, Zanzi, Juhua, Jingdong, Amazon and other platforms.

However, these channels are also online channels. Since the online traffic costs are high, what is the enthusiasm for Internet entrepreneurship next year?

Almost everyone is aiming at the traditional channels that have been ignored for many years - offline.

After the double eleven Ali hit a total of 120.7 billion yuan, Ma Yun’s speech is actually online and offline collaboration is not a trend, but inevitable.

We have seen news that many Internet companies have started to do offline channels in the circle of friends. For example, the offline stores of three squirrels have a sales amount of 2.4 million yuan in one month; Lei Jun said that the floor of the Xiaomi home is a traditional store. 20 times. In addition, this year OPPO, vivo rely on offline channels to top the sales list, but also to make all Internet mobile phone companies exclaim.

Humans naturally have the characteristics of gathering, and naturally like the real experience. Users don't like offline, but don't like traditional offline. Therefore, the offline store after the transformation of "Internet thinking" has been well received by the public.

Especially for third- and fourth-tier cities with a large number of users, how do you rely on pure online to market them? It's hard, especially for the "new" users you want to reach, you may not find them online. The high-level offline experience store is a good "dimension reduction" style.

Nowadays, many famous brand stores can't sell in the first and second line discount sales, but they have achieved good sales on the third and fourth lines. For example, the “Muji” that the big city “likes to hear and hear” just opened in Nanchang this month. This “imperity”, which was not cheap, was almost looted by the enthusiastic Nanchang people. In the first week of the “Three Squirrels” offline store opened in Wuhu, 50,000 people actually entered the store.

Can't you go online to buy it? But for this brand that targets “consumption upgrades”, offline channels have a natural advantage – experience.

Including content that is now very popular, it still needs offline. For example, we are familiar with the "Chaos Learning Society", although the APP provides all the video content, but the students still like to find an offline classroom, watching the video small class mode. Because this learning effect is good! In 2017, the chaotic community operation puts special emphasis on “online and offline collaboration”.

Although He Chang, a representative of Internet catering, has been controversial in 2016, he has a very correct statement - "all Internet catering must have a physical store."

Zhang Zhidong, one of the founders of Tencent, also mentioned in the speech at the WeChat business meeting that the average person who enters the Internet is no longer the old Internet bird, but a small white user. WeChat needs to provide more help and help. They distinguish between what is good content and what is bad.

I want to say that offline is the best channel to help these users.

There is no way for offline operations today. The secret of the core mentality is “the four-level position of the first-level commercial circle, the production process is Internetized, and the omni-channel integration operation”.

Having said that, it seems to be "bad news", then from the operational point of view, is there any good news brought to the Internet entrepreneurs?

The answer is yes. This answer is also on the flow. The traffic here is no longer the user traffic mentioned above but the mobile Internet traffic of the operator.

It is expected that in 2017, the competition in the traffic market of China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom will become “white-hot”. The trend of competition among operators is “flow capping”. In many places, we are planning and measuring the “flow fee capping” package based on “broadband” business. Maybe tomorrow, we no longer have to worry about traffic.

So, what kind of service can Internet companies provide for users if they don't need to worry about traffic charges?

From the operator's point of view, although the traffic price is reduced, the user traffic usage has not increased. There are two reasons for this: First, the user perceives insufficiently, and feels that the traffic is still very expensive and does not dare to use it. Second, the current Internet application scenario does not better stimulate user traffic.

Although the operators have talked about traffic operations for many years, insiders know that traffic operators are not talking about the operators themselves. Operators' efforts to operate traffic for one year are also inferior to WeChat's launch of a feature called "small video." Therefore, traffic operations require the efforts of the entire Internet ecosystem. What operators need to do is to be more open, not just looking at their own "and". And Internet startups can launch more "kill traffic" applications.

Having said that, I will summarize my prediction of the "second half" of the operator's 4G market next year.

Since operators are "pipes", then Internet entrepreneurs who provide "water", you should also think about how to play in the second half?

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