Sunlight: LED lighting demand is heavy, price decline will be narrowed

In the first three quarters, the company achieved a total operating income of 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.27%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 214 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, and earnings per share was 0.22 yuan, slightly lower than our expectation and company plan. Mainly affected by the decline in LED lighting prices and the delay in subsidies.

The price reduction of LED lighting is expected to narrow, and demand is expected to maintain rapid growth. In the second quarter of 2014, the price of LED lighting began to decline due to the decline in chip prices, resulting in a decline in the company's revenue. However, the current price difference between LED lighting and energy-saving lamps has dropped to around 1.5x, and the price has stabilized in 12 months. We expect the price to drop significantly this year. At the same time, the penetration rate of LED lighting is still low (we estimate about 10% in 2014), and it is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next few years. The UBS electronics team expects penetration rate to reach 23.1% by 2016.

The company's new customers are well-developed, and the subsidy is expected to receive the company's successful development of other customers besides Philips, including distributors and retailers in the US, Germany, Russia and other countries. We have forecasted the company's LED lighting sales growth from the original 2014/ The 15/16 100%/70%/55% is raised to 110%/80%/60%, but the LED lighting price and revenue forecasts are lowered and the 2015/16 gross margin assumption is lowered. At the same time, the company's government subsidies receivable in 2014 were partially postponed, but we expect to receive this year and are expected to introduce new subsidy policies, so the company's 2014/2015/2016 subsidy forecast is from 1.2/0.45/0.5 billion. The yuan was adjusted to 0.8/1.0/0.8 billion yuan.

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