In the tech world, it's not uncommon to see predictions that don't quite pan out. One such example is the 2012 forecast by IDC, which claimed that Microsoft’s mobile operating system would surpass Apple’s iOS by 2016. Fast forward to today, and the reality couldn’t be more different.
Looking at the image above, you can see a comparison between the Microsoft Lumia 950 on the left and the Apple iPhone 6s on the right. While both were flagship devices in their time, the future of the two brands took very different paths. Apple continued to dominate the market, while Microsoft's mobile division struggled and eventually faded into obscurity.
IDC's prediction was bold, but ultimately inaccurate. In 2012, they estimated that Windows Phone (WP) would have a 5.2% market share, while iOS sat at 19%, and Android at 61%. By 2016, they predicted WP would overtake iOS, and Android would drop to around 53%. In reality, Android now holds nearly 83% of the market, iOS remains strong with about 14%, and WP has shrunk to just 2.6%—a far cry from IDC's expectations.
The decline of Microsoft’s mobile presence has been dramatic. Since 2012, its market share has dropped by more than 50%, leading many analysts to declare the end of Windows Phone. Despite Microsoft’s efforts to revive the platform with the Surface Phone, the results have been underwhelming. Without a significant turnaround, it's unlikely that IDC will ever regain its credibility in such predictions.
This story serves as a reminder that even well-respected institutions can get things wrong. The tech industry moves fast, and what seems like a sure bet one day can become a cautionary tale the next. As for IDC, it might need to rethink its approach when making future forecasts. After all, no one wants to be remembered for predicting the death of a platform that never had a chance to thrive.
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